CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z MON 05/04 - 06Z TUE 06/04 2004
ISSUED: 05/04 00:00Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across the northern and central Balkans, parts of Poland, Germany and the western Ukraine.

General thunderstorms are forecast across the eastern British Isles and the northwestern Low Countries and northwestern Germany.

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06Z, a trough that precedes a northwesterly jet from the Atlantic into western Europe is moving southeastward. Rising motions ahead of the trough are forecast over central Germany at that time. These will spread southeastward as well, affecting much of central Europe, where the atmosphere is only stlightly stable initially and may locally destabilise by solar heating and rising motions. Over a large area some local thunderstorms are possible. Highest chances are over the central Balkans where the most low level moisture is available and a few 100's of J/kg CAPE are expected. The magnitude of wind shear is not expected to be supportive of severe convection with these low levels of instability.

During the evening hours an intensifying trough over the southern North Sea is expected to move into the Low Countries. This system may be accompanied by some linearly organised thunderstorms. These will likely not be severe.

DISCUSSION

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